Redstate

must have been thoroughly decimated and demoralized for Muqtada al-Sadr to call for another six-month extension.

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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan

2/23/08

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/22/AR200802...

2/21/08

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/20/AR200802...

You know cuzz this administration is bribing Musharraf it must be bribing Al-Sadr Bush is the devil blah, blah, blah!

Founder and contributor to The Minority Report and Editor for The Hinzsight Report

"...this report is just another sign of transformation in Iraq"

Sure, after 1000 years (give or take) of Arabs beating back infidel invaders, suddenly there is a "transformation." "Live to fight another day" may not be an Arab expression, but it does sum up quite neatly their ancient Koranic concept "hudna," which is a temporary truce they agree to when they are being beaten to a bloody pulp in order to lick their wounds, regroup, rearm and wait for the next opportunity to attack. And since the Arabs are not inflicted with a short attention span, a hudna and the "next opportunity" do not have to coincide with the outcome of an American election. It can be 1 year, 5, 10, 25, whatever it takes. Think the ten years Arafat was a "peace partner," and what he then did with that time in the end. Cosi fan tutti. Right now the surge has given us the upperhand, but once we get out - regardless of the circumstances then - history shows they'll be back to cut it off.

(Oh, BTW, gasp!, I'm a Republican)

Dan Friedman
NYC

If that last post is Red Hat's version of political incorrectness, please let me know now, officially. I have better ways to waste my time.

Dan Friedman
NYC

Part of the reason for this is:

The top Hizbollah leader killed in a bombing in Syria last week had helped train members of the Mahdi Army, one of Iraqi Shiites most powerful militia groups.

Imad Mughniyeh, according to a senior intelligence source, traveled to Iraq several times with forged passports and identities and oversaw the training and supply of the Madhi Army with arms.

The Iraqi intelligence source said Mughniyeh supervised the transfer of groups of at least 300 Mahdi Army fighters to Lebanon where they received intensive military training.

The Mahdi Army is the military wing of Sadr Movement, a Shiite political group with 35 deputies in the parliament and mass popular support among the Shiites. The group is led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Sadr was the only Shiite leader to announce three-day mourning for the assassinated Hizbollah leader.

Mughniyeh, according to the source, visited several Iraqi cities in the south where he would personally select militia members for leadership roles and training in Lebanon.

It's a fairly weak cease-fire when you have the above going on.

Then you have this bit from the Post DcCid cited from above:

"But Sadr's ability to enforce the truce hinges on his control over the unruly, decentralized militia. Many senior Mahdi Army leaders and politicians loyal to Sadr have called for the cease-fire to be lifted because they said it was being exploited by Iraqi and U.S. forces, and Sadr's political rivals, to arrest his followers. In some areas of Baghdad, militiamen have ignored Sadr's orders and continued to commit atrocities."

That's very true. Sadr doesn't have a traditional centralized command structure; it wildly taped together with a general capital-city Shia disdain for Americans. And his ability to politically extend his reach outside Baghdad, down south in Basra, is shaky.

For example, you have British troops killed as a common reality in Basra. Presently you have this delicate situation in Basra:

Because Mr. Sadr’s followers boycotted the 2004 elections that established the local government, they lack official representation in the local council. The Mahdi Army has compensated for its lack of official authority in Basra by pushing for jobs for Sadr followers in major government sectors, including health, oil, the port and education. Militia elements have also established protection rackets, ransom schemes and smuggling operations, according to American and Iraqi officials.
...
“Seventy percent of the army is pure,” [t]he [official]said. “The other 30 percent, I don’t know. The militias are like a smoldering fire. They can explode at any time.”
...
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/23/world/middleeast/23basra.html?_r=1&hp=...

Those following Iraq acknowledge the tentative reach Sadr has in Basra. With the elections coming in Oct. it will be interesting to watch how the militias understand the present 'cease fire' before it ends in August.

To say this this 6 month extension is significant must be understood in the context that all sides in Iraq are preparing for a possible future war. The military marginally states this grim reality as they see the political window for reconciliation slowly close. This extension realistically speaking may be the last chance for some real political deals to happen.

You can count on MAS to take whatever action he calculates will increase his influence, power, and stature among Iraqi Shiites. He does not act out of principle or emotion. He acts out of self interest. None of his actions since 2003 have been surprising when viewed in that context. The goods news is that makes him utterly predictable.

It clearly was in his interest to continue to participate in the cease fire. However, it also was clearly in his interest to leave that outcome in doubt for as long as possible. That way all the other parties have to continue to woo him. That's also why he plays the 6 month renewal game. He's already writing up his wish list for August.

It was no accident that a MNF spokesman used the honorific "Al Sayyid" to refer to MAS last week, before he extended the cease fire.

"If all men were just, there would be no need of valor."
- Agesilaus

battlefield and prefers his digs in Iraq as opposed to the Motel 6 in Tehran.

Mike "Gamecock" DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
http://thehinzsightreport.com
www.theminorityreportblog.com
www.race42008.com
"One man with courage makes a majority." - Andrew Jackson

First, the extension continues American efforts in working through rouge and disloyal cohorts in Sadr's militia; slowly thinning out the ungovernable and undisciplined so his Army has more a command structure.

Second, it allows more time for the Americans to knock off Sunnis for him while he retained the "peacemaker" ribbon.

Third, Who knows, Sadr may get something from the Americans for it.

In essence, Sadr's positioning himself to take over after we leave.

He will be the only Shiite leader with a real nationalist identity, as the others will be tainted as US puppets and sell-outs.

If he can make his cease-fire stick all the way to August he'll have done something. If there are elections in Oct. he'll be stronger and make demands. That is if there isn't a war before the election. Maliki, Hakim and Sunnis won't just give him the election. Sadr must make a move at some point, and when he does the violence will be page one again-- just before the US election.

"In essence, Sadr's positioning himself to take over after we leave."

Who said anything about leaving?

Apparently, you assume that the U.S. will end its military presence in Iraq before Iran's nuclear program is either dismantled voluntarily and peaceably, or destroyed.

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“Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they are ignorant, but that they know so much that isn't so.” – Ronald Reagan